The green transition—the shift from carbon-intensive to sustainable, low-carbon energy systems—is a cornerstone of addressing climate change. A just transition points to the effort required to ensure that the green transition is equitable, and leaves no one behind. This includes policies to retrain workers whose jobs are phased out, and mitigating economic and social inequalities exacerbated by the transition. Just transition policies bridge the domains of climate action and social welfare, requiring significant public investments and social solidarity—aspects that could be hard to foster in environments with low levels of trust.

A just transition involves complex social, economic, and political transformations that often hinge on public support. The academic literature highlights the importance of political trust in order for there to be public support for climate policies. Confidence in government leaders has been shown to shape perceptions of policy effectiveness, helping to mitigate concerns about outcomes and implementation. 

Different types of trust

Political trust refers to confidence in the intentions and effectiveness of government leaders, while institutional trust in this field of research encompasses broader confidence in organizations, both state and non-state actors. Breaking trust into specific types is crucial for identifying the mechanisms that drive public support for climate policies.

Large-scale surveys such as the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) provide valuable insights into how people’s climate policy support intersect with their trust in various institutions. In 2020, the ISSP included an environmental supplement for Iceland which offered a unique opportunity to examine public attitudes toward climate policies and their underlying trust dynamics. Along with several colleagues, I analyzed this data to take a deeper look at how combined political trust in the state, plus other sets of relevant institutions, shape public preferences for energy transition policies. We chose Iceland as a case study as the country is a forerunner in relying on renewable energy for heating and electricity for households.

Trust should extend beyond trust in government

In our article ‘When trusting the state is not enough: broader institutional trust and public support for energy transition policies’, I and several of my colleagues argue that trust must extend beyond governments to include a wider array of institutions that collectively support the green transition. That is, trust in other institutions like universities and the media is important in addition to trusting the government. This widespread trust between different actors is needed for such a significant societal shift, particularly as complex policy changes tend to engender widespread social uncertainty. This broader trust base can enable the public to view these institutions as credible and capable partners in navigating the transition, ensuring policies are seen as fair, inclusive, and effective.

In the study, we carried out a quantitative analysis that focused on both political and institutional trust and how these influence public support for energy transition policies in Iceland. We examined three specific policies: increasing taxes on fossil fuels, subsidizing renewable energy, and supporting a just transition for workers displaced by climate policies. Several findings stood out:

• The role of institutional trust: Broader institutional trust, including both trust in state and non-state actors (like universities and the media), was positively associated with support for all three policies. This suggests that fostering trust across a range of institutions can enhance public buy-in for ambitious climate actions.
• Political trust’s narrower impact: Political trust primarily influenced support for policies perceived as directly costly, such as taxes on fossil fuels. This indicates that political trust might be more critical when policies involve clear financial trade-offs for individuals, which aligns with the literature in the field.
• Policy preferences across age groups: Younger people were generally more supportive of taxation and subsidies compared to older age groups, reflecting global trends of heightened climate concern among younger generations.