The Nordic countries are currently facing a confluence of transformations which will have an impact on how people work in both the immediate and long-term future. These transformations are similar to most other Western countries, and most notably include digitalization and the green transition. Digitalization is perhaps best represented by advances in technologies like generative artificial intelligence e.g. ChatGPT. According to the Finnish Ministry of the Environment, the green transition means ”a shift towards economically sustainable growth and an economy that is not based on fossil fuels and overconsumption of natural resources. A sustainable economy relies on low-carbon solutions that promote the circular economy and biodiversity.”

Effective training programmes will be essential for retraining workers so they are equipped with new skills demanded by a different, greener economy. In principle, the Nordic welfare states are arguably more equipped to address these labour market challenges than other countries, also those with welfare states. Comparatively generous unemployment benefits, despite increasingly stringent conditions, should support unemployed workers to retrain and attain new skills. Comparatively strong (albeit fraying) collective bargaining practices should also support in-work training which may help restrict the extent of unemployment in the first place. Even if unemployment does occur, the comparatively well-off Nordic welfare states ought to be able to insulate unemployed workers against some of its more deleterious effects. For example, the robust training programmes in Denmark are likely to support unemployed workers to learn new skills.

The extent of unemployment from these transformations will vary extensively across the Nordic countries. The benefits and costs from transitioning to a greener economy will be distributed unequally based on the natural endowments of particular regions. Research shows that the economic benefits and costs derived from the green economy can be geographically concentrated. For example, wind turbines are most efficient in their energy production in areas where wind is reliably consistent, and, in turn, jobs that service the maintenance of wind turbines will be similarly concentrated.

At the same time, the Nordic countries are experiencing depopulation in a substantial number of regions which are distant from core urban centres. These regions often consequently suffer from a shortage of skilled labour, something that firms take into consideration when deciding where to invest. Hence there are likely to be fewer opportunities in these regions than in metropolitan areas to move from uncompetitive brown sector jobs (jobs in sectors that produce substantial carbon emissions) to more competitive green jobs (jobs in sectors that produce low or minimal carbon emissions).

Why should we care about inequalities from the future of work?

Challenges in finding and keeping appropriate employment have an impact on individuals as well as the economy, but research has also shown that they can also have a wider impact on society. Inequalities resulting from working life in the future may worsen social cohesion, which is already fraying today. Even in Nordic societies, which are often characterised by high social and political trust, political polarisation has taken root. Regions and people who have been left behind by previous structural transformations will probably feel even more alienated and cut adrift from the rest of society if they are further buffeted by incoming transformations. Consequently, it is essential for policymakers to pay attention to potential inequalities that may arise from the organization of work in the future beyond paying lip service to the notion of a “Just Transition” to avoid harmful sociopolitical consequences that are difficult to rectify further down the road.